I dont mean slowdown but bug. You have emails all registered players co you can ask for replay to check it. Then you will know is there any bug or not.
IS IT BIG PROBLEM?
We don't stop writing
8 World records today..
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Krzysztof Stuchlik
- Posts: 441
- Joined: 14 Oct 2007, 22:21
- Location: Poland, Wisła
JUSSI
I dont mean slowdown but bug. You have emails all registered players co you can ask for replay to check it. Then you will know is there any bug or not.
IS IT BIG PROBLEM?
We don't stop writing
I dont mean slowdown but bug. You have emails all registered players co you can ask for replay to check it. Then you will know is there any bug or not.
IS IT BIG PROBLEM?
We don't stop writing
*****Shahen*****
Never to retreat, never to surrender!
Slovenia HS281 -320,90 m (World Record)
http://www.shahendsj.aaf.pl
Never to retreat, never to surrender!
Slovenia HS281 -320,90 m (World Record)
http://www.shahendsj.aaf.pl
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Jussi Koskela
- Site Admin
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- Location: Finland
- Contact:
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onkelsmerte
- Posts: 418
- Joined: 14 Jan 2008, 18:34
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Bjørn Andre Monsen
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Just a thought:
If you have a slightly statistical look at the scores then there is a chance of 1 by 100 for every ending beetween xxx,00 and xxx,99 meters. So on 40 hills there are normally 4 hills were your score is between xx,00 and 0,09 and around 1 or 2 hills were you will cracked an full meter by 1 or 2 centimeters, for instance 139,01m or something like that:
Waldemar has got 6(!) of those pretty cool records:
(there are just 40 hills ... not even the half of a hundred)
Hmmm ... Waldemar did this on 5 of the 40 hills :
So to me it looks like he is setting the scores manually or he can jump longer than the actual records but is resetting them before an upload for getting "prettier" scores. That's just a thought ... maybe it's a coincidence .. but why does this happen to him of all the people?
Another thing:
If you have a slightly statistical look at the scores then there is a chance of 1 by 100 for every ending beetween xxx,00 and xxx,99 meters. So on 40 hills there are normally 4 hills were your score is between xx,00 and 0,09 and around 1 or 2 hills were you will cracked an full meter by 1 or 2 centimeters, for instance 139,01m or something like that:
Waldemar has got 6(!) of those pretty cool records:
Austria HS197 2009-03-15 216.02m Sweden HS121 2009-04-12 130.01m Estonia HS185 2009-04-12 205.02m Denmark HS93 2009-04-12 100.02m China HS252 2009-03-22 280.02m Bosnia HS111 2009-04-12 117.01mAnother thing is the probability of getting a length of only some centimeters over a 10m-mark, for instance 120,02 cm ... the probability of jumping less then 10cm over a full 10m-mark is 1 by 100. So normally you only got one of this records in your list, if at all
(there are just 40 hills ... not even the half of a hundred)Hmmm ... Waldemar did this on 5 of the 40 hills :
Sweden HS121 2009-04-12 130.01m Denmark HS93 2009-04-12 100.02m China HS252 2009-03-22 280.02m Belgium HS126 2009-04-12 140.03m Turkey HS177 2009-04-12 190.07mI've compared the records of Michał Skalik, geir mikael reijners and me (as probably not cheating jumpers) with WALDEMARs, Josefs and Stepans scores. Waldemar is the only one with such a statistical error.
So to me it looks like he is setting the scores manually or he can jump longer than the actual records but is resetting them before an upload for getting "prettier" scores. That's just a thought ... maybe it's a coincidence .. but why does this happen to him of all the people?
Another thing:
Germany HS261 2009-04-12 289.32m Bulgaria HS258 2009-03-29 289.32mFunny, huh?
Oh, i can go more detailed, if oyu want to
Probability for doing records which are only 0-9cm over a full 10m-Mark (40 hills):
And the probability of doing 5 or more of these jumps is 100%-99,995 what means 0,00491544% (1 by 20345)
This means:
The chance, Waldemar did his records by jumping and without any manipulation (resetting too long hillrecords before upload or editing the files) is
1 : 20000
But all these calculations are basing on a random distribution of the hill sizes and no psychological factors like "wow, i did the 150 .. just by some centimeters, but thats enough, so let's stop jumping on this hill"
@Severin: DU warst doch den ganzen Winter nicht "da". Freu mich um so mehr, dass DU wieder dabei bist. (und hoffentlich hab ich mich nicht verrechnet *g*)
Probability for doing records which are only 0-9cm over a full 10m-Mark (40 hills):
Number of | |
such records | Probability | Sum (all numbers up to here)
-------------+-------------+---------------------------------------
0 | 66,8971759% | 66,897%
1 | 27,0291620% | 93,926%
2 | 5,3239326% | 99,250%
3 | 0,6811757% | 99,931%
4 | 0,0636425% | 99,995%
5 | 0,0046287% | 99,9997%
6 | 0,0002727% | 99,999986%
7..40 | 0,0000140% | 100,0%
So, the probability of doing 5 of these jumps on the 40 hill is 0,0046287% (a chance of 1 by 21600).And the probability of doing 5 or more of these jumps is 100%-99,995 what means 0,00491544% (1 by 20345)
This means:
The chance, Waldemar did his records by jumping and without any manipulation (resetting too long hillrecords before upload or editing the files) is
1 : 20000
But all these calculations are basing on a random distribution of the hill sizes and no psychological factors like "wow, i did the 150 .. just by some centimeters, but thats enough, so let's stop jumping on this hill"
@Severin: DU warst doch den ganzen Winter nicht "da". Freu mich um so mehr, dass DU wieder dabei bist. (und hoffentlich hab ich mich nicht verrechnet *g*)
What now would be very nice, would be to see what were the old world records on each hill beforce Waldemar did his. Unfortunately it's not possible to see the result of more than the current longest jump of a jumper.
If he is really able to just type in the results perhaps the world be a system visible, like he just makes his result about the next full meter higher, or whatsoever...
To get your table:
If you would do 20345 jumps, statistically there would be 5 jumps like Waldemars?
The average hillsize in DSJ is 176,6 m, so Turkey is next to average.
To make a jump in Turkey over hillsize you need about 15 seconds.
20345 jumps x 15 seconds = 84 hours and 46 minutes of constant gaming ( without searching wind, launching the game, watching replays, etc. ).
So just jumping.
Waldemar did the 5 jumps from march, 22th to april, 12th, so 22 days
that means jumping 3 hours and 51 minutes every single day.
Ok, that seems possible, however he did 4 of these jumps on the same day, the famous april, the 12th ...
I don't want to do the mathematics right now again, because I am really not good in it, and I am definitely not sure, if the things above are correct but 4 of these jumps in one day seem unbelieveable...
But on the other side, we don't even know if he did all these jumps on the same day, as he also could've just set the date of his computer to that day everytime he jumped again. Then DSJ would use that date everytime
If he is really able to just type in the results perhaps the world be a system visible, like he just makes his result about the next full meter higher, or whatsoever...
To get your table:
If you would do 20345 jumps, statistically there would be 5 jumps like Waldemars?
The average hillsize in DSJ is 176,6 m, so Turkey is next to average.
To make a jump in Turkey over hillsize you need about 15 seconds.
20345 jumps x 15 seconds = 84 hours and 46 minutes of constant gaming ( without searching wind, launching the game, watching replays, etc. ).
So just jumping.
Waldemar did the 5 jumps from march, 22th to april, 12th, so 22 days
that means jumping 3 hours and 51 minutes every single day.
Ok, that seems possible, however he did 4 of these jumps on the same day, the famous april, the 12th ...
I don't want to do the mathematics right now again, because I am really not good in it, and I am definitely not sure, if the things above are correct
but 4 of these jumps in one day seem unbelieveable...But on the other side, we don't even know if he did all these jumps on the same day, as he also could've just set the date of his computer to that day everytime he jumped again. Then DSJ would use that date everytime
nope ...Severin wrote:...
To get your table:
If you would do 20345 jumps, statistically there would be 5 jumps like Waldemars? ...
you can do such "10meter-mark-breaking-by-less-than-10cm"-jumps every 100th jump ... the chance of such a jump is 1:100
There are 100 of 10cm-corridors on every 10m
(Example for 250,00..259,99)
1 250,00 ... 250,09
2 250,10 ... 250,19
.
.
11 251,00 .. 251.09
.
.
50 254,90 ... 254,99
51 255,00 ... 255,09
52 255,10 ... 255,19
.
.
99 259,80 ... 259,89
100 259,90 ... 259,99
1 260,00 ... 260,09
2 260,10 ... 260,19.
.
.
and so on
So normally ONE of 100 jumps is in corridor 1 ... the corridor i spoke about, because it is the "prettiest, cooles, best looking" corridor IMHO
So, if you have 40 records and only every 100th jump is in corridor 1, then the probabilty of having 1 record, that is a jump just a few (0..9) cm over a 10m Mark, is 27%
The probabilty of having not even 1 of such record is 67% (this means: all of your 40 personal records were jumps, into corridor 2-100 ... das ist also bei 2/3 aller Spieler so, dass sie keinen einziger rekord haben, der so aussieht, dass sie nur ein paar cm über eine 10m-Marke gesprungen sind .. kannste ja in der Rekordliste mal nachschauen ... sollte aber hinkommen)
But the probability of having 5 or more of such records at the same time (as waldemar has) is: 0,0049% and this means only 1 of 20000 jumpers will have this situation in his recordlist.
Interesting. This must mean that statisticaly one can expect to find maybe one single dsj-player with such records, and certainly not very likely several. So what then would be the chance that exactly this player at the same time happens to be the one with allmost all the world records by coicidence?Torsten wrote:But the probability of having 5 or more of such records at the same time (as waldemar has) is: 0,0049% and this means only 1 of 20000 jumpers will have this situation in his recordlist.
THAT's the question, as i already mentioned above:Grufugl wrote:So what then would be the chance that exactly this player at the same time happens to be the one with allmost all the world records by coicidence?
Torsten wrote:maybe it's a coincidence .. but why does this happen to him of all the people?
But the chance for "waldemar is the one with 5 or more of these records" is still 1:20000 ...
Last edited by Torsten on 24 Apr 2009, 14:07, edited 1 time in total.
And there is another statistical "problem" with his scores:
You will not find any 0 or 5!
Because every 5th jump will have a length ending with 0 or 5 the probability of not having one single record with this last number is: 0,013% or 1 : 7500
Finding a player with 40 records, including ZERO records with 0 or 5 at the end PLUS including 5 records with less then 10 cm over a 10m-Mark should normally be impossible,
cause the probability for that (both probabilitys are independent!) is:
1 : 150 Million
So it looks like the lengths are done manually, 0s and 5s are skipped (maybe because he thinks it looks too artifically or he cannot generate correct checksums for such numbers ... what the completely same lengths in GER an BUL are indicating, too) and too many lenghts were generated for showing new milestones (like 190 in Turkey and so on)
BTW: The google cache of the worldrecords from april 06 is saying the same: no records with 0 or 5 ...
Norway HS138 146.59m Finland HS218 233.22m Czech Republic HS192 208.16m Japan HS248 282.32m Italy HS146 154.28m Russia HS223 240.52m Slovakia HS180 197.54m Austria HS197 216.02m Canada HS107 117.18m Poland HS269 296.38m Switzerland HS157 168.71m Sweden HS121 130.01m Germany HS261 289.32m USA HS171 182.97m France HS235 255.32m Slovenia HS281 327.78m Estonia HS185 205.02m Romania HS228 250.43m Denmark HS93 100.02m Ukraine HS203 220.41m Belgium HS126 140.03m United Kingdom HS85 92.54m Kazakhstan HS164 178.34m Bulgaria HS258 289.32m Korea HS174 189.13m The Netherlands HS100 108.12m Spain HS242 265.59m Australia HS149 160.57m China HS252 280.02m Belarus HS214 236.14m Hungary HS117 124.73m Croatia HS278 315.66m Lithuania HS153 164.51m Serbia HS69 73.48m Turkey HS177 190.07m Argentina HS240 263.26m Georgia HS207 230.97m Latvia HS80 86.14m Bosnia HS111 117.01m Iceland HS275 314.72mDo you see it? Have a look at the last number in each length!
You will not find any 0 or 5!
Because every 5th jump will have a length ending with 0 or 5 the probability of not having one single record with this last number is: 0,013% or 1 : 7500
Finding a player with 40 records, including ZERO records with 0 or 5 at the end PLUS including 5 records with less then 10 cm over a 10m-Mark should normally be impossible,
cause the probability for that (both probabilitys are independent!) is:
1 : 150 Million
So it looks like the lengths are done manually, 0s and 5s are skipped (maybe because he thinks it looks too artifically
or he cannot generate correct checksums for such numbers ... what the completely same lengths in GER an BUL are indicating, too) and too many lenghts were generated for showing new milestones (like 190 in Turkey and so on)BTW: The google cache of the worldrecords from april 06 is saying the same: no records with 0 or 5 ...